Retail sales in UK rebound in the run-up to Christmas

According to CBI’s Distributive Trades Survey 39% respondents reported that sales volumes were up on the same time last year. This compares to 13% said they were down, giving a balance of 29%.

A survey among 128 respondents found that the balance of retailers reporting a rise in average selling prices in the year to November was +75 – the strongest growth in average selling prices in 26 years.

This is welcome relief news to beleaguered retailers in the run-up to Christmas.

A fastest rate in decline has been recorded in the last month’s survey for the industry since March 2009, when the UK was in recession.

Many of the retailers have been hit by the slowdown in consumer spending. As the inflation is rising than the wages, consumers are beginning to feel the pinch and cut back their household budget.

The closing date for the survey was on 14th November, it was well before the beginning of the crucial Black Friday week which expected to push sales even higher.

Rain Newton-Smith, CBI chief economist, said: “It’s great to see retail sales rebound this month after a big dip, but let’s be clear: our high streets are not out of the woods. Ahead of the crucial run up to Christmas, the weaker pound has pushed up prices and retailers are nervous about business conditions and are trimming their workforces”.

He also added that “The relief from the rising burden of business rates in Chancellor’s Budget will be welcome on the UK’s high streets, as will the investment in local transport connections and housing which should supporting our local communities but the job is not done, now is the time for swift delivery.”

It is predicted that the sales volumes to pick up again next month, with 39% retailers expecting them to rise versus 9% think they will fall.

However, more expect their overall business situation to deteriorate over the next 3 months than think it will improve. It is the fourth consecutive quarter of falling sentiment.

According to Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “We strongly doubt that consumers, hit by rapidly rising prices, higher interest rates and slowing employment growth, will be able to keep increasing their overall real spending.”

Many of the retailers who have been participated in the survey noticed the rise and fall in their sales volume with the help of their epos systems. How the millennials are thinking and what kind of offers to promote for the Christmas can be predicted by the retailers.